A Faster Way to Win Games Now

I am still tabulating up some info on the fouls analysis, but I can provide some interesting insight into home field advantage, and how it may work to United's benefit this season. If you read the press releases, you know that United has recently signed a new concession contract with Sodexo to provide concession services at United's games. Now, being the kind of person I am, I sent random emails to Sodexo to talk about the concession deal, and was eventually put in touch with Avril Bufon, the Director of Beverage Utilization and Nutritional Consumption at Sodexo. Our conversation was brief, and related to the discussions about the new fan experience at games, but what was more interesting was a discussion about the team's performance and beer sales.

I had begun by asking if it seems that fans purchase more beer when the team is losing (to drown misery) or winning (to celebrate). Now, Avril had statistics on beer sales for the entire 2008 season "to serve as our throughput benchmarks for the upcoming season, to see if we are exceeding previously established rates of return from the prior vendor coordinator." While gross beer sales seemed to be all over the place, she did note that they internally adjust sales based on attendance. And here there was a definite trend: There were more beers (and lemonades) purchased on game days where United won the match.

Now, I didn't think of this much, until yesterday, whenI received from Ms. Bufon some very interesting data. At first, I dismissed correlation between Goals Scored and beverage consumption as a manifestation of the weather: United had a very strong August and June in its home matches last year, which is also when it gets pretty hot at RFK. But more interesting was the correlation between first half beverage sales (they track this data to "maximize the deployment of vendor resources) and goals scored, even when most of the goals are in the second half (this game, for instance)

Even more, check out this quick analysis I through together of some of the data she gave me (consumption statistics are for pregame and in house+vendor sales until half-time)

There seems to be a very strong positive correlation between consumption in just the first half and overall team performance. When I e-mailed Ms. Bufon, she was not surprised, "Oh, it is a well known phenomena. Crowd intensity, which can be increased by drinking and the associated lowering on inhibitions, is a far more potent factor than crowd size. United fans tend to have a reputation for increased intensity, and we hope, increased thirst. It's one of the reasons we bid on this contract." She then sent me a long list to what appear to be psychological studies of this factor. "Drinking helps people believe, and the sooner they are drunk, the faster their belief affects their support at matches. If you drink enough, you can believe anything."

So there you have it. If you want to have an enjoyable United season, then start drinking, and the earlier the better.

A Look at Fouls and Defense

Perhaps I am incorrect to do, but I sometimes get the impression that Tom Soehn believes you can evaluate the toughness of a team by how willing they are to foul. Now, I am somewhat skeptical of this idea, but my skepticism should not be taken as Truth. So I'd like to examine this question in a little more detail.

Let's call this the Theory of Hack'em. I'm thinking the rational is that the closer your mark and the more frequently you challenge an attacker. As a result of this, you may have more free kicks conceded to the opposing team, but the overall effect is to blunt your opponent's attacks. When worded this way, it doesn't sound as ludicrous as a surface reading might suppose.

Now, as I said, I'm not sure I believe this theory at all. To me, fouls are far more likely to be a indication that a players is beating you on the ball, and so fouls indicate a weak defense, not a strong one. But this is a hypothesis that we should be able to test. I don't think I do so here, but I wanted to at least provide the overview before we went further, to give people an opportunity to say "I think you're barking up the wrong tree here."

Let's look at 2008. We have a full season's worth of statistics, so let's compare Goals Allowed per game against Fouls Committed per game. If we plot that, we get something that looks like this:

United, for your reference, committed 12.63 fouls per game (7th most in the league) and allowed 1.57 goals per game (2nd most in the league). Chivas led the league with over 16 fouls a game, and LA of course let in the most goals. Now, from this look, there doesn't seem to be any correlation between fouls committed and goals allowed. If anything, there's a weakly positive correlation.

So on a league wide basis, at least confined to the 2008 season, this seems to be bunk. But here's how I propose to really look at this (and it will take me some time, so if you think this is a fool's errand, speak now): This could be something we can only see in a season. Let's take a look at United's games only. We know that, on arithmetic average, they committed 12.63 fouls per game. So on games where they did more than that, did they allow fewer goals? This allows us to control for just the Tom Soehn system, plus we should be able to pull out 30 or so good data points for 2008. Make sense to you? Any takers on what we will find? Because honestly, part of me hopes I am wrong about thinking this entire theory is bunk.

Valuable Football Tools: The Angst-O-Graph

As promised, I give you the wonderful innovation that shows you concisely how to map the depths of your despair. See, when analyzing United, it's helpful to remember that there are two dimensions to the nihilism that threatens to overwhelm any football fan. There's the depths of the abyss to which you've fallen at any given moment. But this game can be a game of moments, so just as important is the duration through which this existential angst must be endured.

Now, if we were to indulge our dorkier sides, we might create a graph upon which to plot the angst we feel. Let's have a semi-logarithmic scale for time, and a normal Cartesian scale for the angst. Time is self explanatory, but let's set the boundaries for angst: No angst is the equivalent of running through a magical meadow where the bees sing songs from Rogers and Hammerstein and the flowers bloom $100 bills. Ultimate angst is having an eagle arrive every day to tear out your liver, which regrows overnight, while Diane Rehm yammers in your ear about the delightful new tea cozy on which she embroidered the greatest blog comments appearing at FireDogLake. Ok, that's settled. So if we were to graph that, this is what it might look like.

Neat enough, but let's throw some examples on there to get the hang of it (the Real Salt Lake game in question is this one):

Now, wouldn't it be useful to actually use this graph for something? Indeed, I think it would be. So let's introduce the concept of the Fire Line. This is the line above which a change must be made, but it varies depending on the nature of what we're talking about. Angst about players is really based on game performance, and they can be benched before they're traded, so the tolerance on a game-by-game basis is lower, with some variation (and leeway) for your established leaders on the field. Coaches don't get fired over an individual game, but within a season if things get bad enough then a change must be made. There's a little leveling off around the season mark (reflecting the desire to give a coach a chance to remake a bad team that was inherited, or to fully implement a season) but after that the decline is steep. Ownership matters have an even longer time scale to consider, and we're all fairly impotent in dealing with them, so it would have to take a lot to have fans rebel on ownership related matters. So, here's my shot at mapping out those lines...

See, this is how I think I tend to view matters when writing about them. Game-by-game decisions rarely discuss coaching matters other than tactics, and when they are discussed it is in the scope of the longer season (reflecting where the Fire Line for coaches exist). Ownership matters are even bigger in scope. But in terms of player performance, the biggest change in their Fire Lines is within a game to a series of games. Which is why talking about effort and ability makes sense here. It doesn't discuss the methodology behind putting a team together, that's not a players responsibility. And during a game, I am not rooting for the ownership, or the coach, but for the players on the field. Over the course of the season I may have a rooting interest in a coach, and over multiple seasons the ownership issues.

So, for me personally, here's how I have plotted my Angst-O-Graph. Please feel free to use the blank provided to create your own, and certainly I do not perceive my opinions as the ultimate arbiter (at least, not in this matter. Angst must be a personal matter, or what else is the point?)

Towards a Unified Theory of Blame

I'm thinking there should be a good way of separating one's feeling while watching a game, and figuring out the breaking point of fandom at any given moment. To that end, I will debut the "DCenters Angst-O-Graph" in the next day or so, maybe even later today depending on how things go.

The problem I am attempting to factor is this: How does one properly direct the feelings of antipathy that a moment may evoke. I bring this up to continue the discussion with the Anonymous ranter regarding the Hudson era. It's my feeling that players can probably only be held accountable for feelings within the scope of a game or two. For the players, we can only ask that they perform as well as they can. If the players aren't the right players, that is of course the fault of coaching and management. But the players aren't at fault there. Similarly, if the players screw up a play, that's the fault of a player, but not the ownership (it's the fault of a coach only if the coaching has put the player into an untenable situation.)

So my goal, ultimately, is to create a fancy graph that tells us stuff we already know. But hey, isn't that the point?

Playoff Race Watch

Now that we're in the middle of August, the playoff race will heat up. With the everchanging rules for who gets to play in the post season, its hard to keep track. I think this year the format is the 3 teams above the Tropic of Capricorn from each conference, then the next 2 teams with an English player. Luckily, there are dedicated fans like Ken Roberts here to make some of the analysis easier. He put together an online application to track the MLS Playoff Race.

I'm trying to answer questions like:
What effect does each game this week have on a team's odds of making
the playoffs? (The "Big Games" section.)
How well do they need to finish out the season to make the playoffs?
(The "What If" section on each team's page.)

If you check it out and have any suggestions I'd love to hear them.

What can we gleam so far? Head over to his site to check it out. You can also learn who we should be rooting for/against in the other games this weekend.

Keeping Appropriate Distance and Creating Appropraite Value

In the course of being engrossed by the game to game mentality and analysis, it is easy for me to lose perspective of an entire season. At times like this, it is useful to look back on previous posts to remind myself of what I was thinking earlier, and to reapply that perspective to where we are now. I am prompted to do this, in part, because Booked for Dissent is in the middle of a series analyzing Dave Kasper's moves over the past few years. There's a lot there that is provocative, and it reminded me of something I wrote before this season began:

The mission of D.C. United is to serve the community and win championships. United has let their most visible humanitarian go to Houston. United has let the 2006 MLS MVP leave for a designated player. We are being told, in other words, that this team is more likely than that team to fulfill those two goals...

...this, we are told, is the best team to embody those principles...

While it is easy to focus on players in a game, this is a year that demands that we truly examine our coaching and front office. Players will win or lose games, but the front office and management will win or lose this season. They, more than any other parties, are responsible for the 2008 campaign. They had done right by us in the past, but the price of professional sports is inevitably "what have you done for me lately." The departure of Boswell, of Gomez, of Perkins... these all signify that while I give the roster moves of the past great credit, they do not matter for this season. This season is about the choices we have seen being made... Risk, in the markets, defines uncertainty, and riskier investments have a greater chance of crashing and burning, but also a greater chance of truly spectacular yields. D.C. United is now the most exotic South American tech stock in MLS.

Lifton is, I think, writing an analysis to evaluate the team along those lines, as he notes:

So really only three of the unknown commodities - Martinez, Emilio and Fred - could be considered as quality acquisitions. And the higher salaries given to those who have failed, notably Filomeno and Niell, have come at the expense of deepening the squad with players better suited to the style of play and demands of MLS.

To date, United's return on investment has yielded a .500 record, 4th place in the Eastern Conference, a similar finish in the CONCACAF Champion's League to last season, an elimination in group play in Superliga, and a semi-final US Open Cup appearance. Only the US Open Cup run is an improvement, all the rest is either treading water or regression. What's more, the US Open Cup run has been largely powered by the reserved, not the flashy acquisitions. If United were a publicly traded company, the shareholders would be in revolt.

Which, in a strange way, brings us to the acquisitions of Joe Vide and Ivan Guerrero. In baseball, the concept of Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) has been well established. It examines players not in isolation, but in comparison to what your typical backup player would do in the same position. There is much literature using VORP in the way that baseball SABRE-types can do with such facility, and which we can not, but the I want to borrow the concept if not the statistics. United's acquisitions have frequently never been baseline against the average MLS player, or the average MLS backup. That makes some sense, since United's approach to signings has frequently been to find the players to ensure excellence, not competence. The problem is that while United has searched for excellence, they've incurred a larger risk of getting either replacement-level or below replacement-level players in return. Our acquisitions have been tremendous (Gomez, Emilio, and hell, let's even throw in Gallardo and Fred despite the arguments that can ensue) or utter busts (Donnet, Filomeno, Niell). About the only time United ended up with someone who was an average player was Erpen, whom we traded away.

The issue here is at least partially one of translation. The South American market is one that does not translate as one-to-one with MLS, and so projecting out ability is difficult. We simply can't tell with a high degree of confidence how players will adapt to the MLS style of play. Period. You may get great result, crappy results, and any combination in between. And if most of your acquisitions are from South America, you're pretty much betting the dice will come up sixes multiple times in a row.

Which is why the acquisition of Vide and Guerrero is important -- it represents a shift away from the high risk/high reward theory of player acquisition that has dominated the last three years. Vide is not going to be a superstar, or likely be a replacement for Clyde Simms. What he is, however, is someone who you can evaluate in this league, and you can tell that you will get at least replacement player value from him, if not slightly better. Guerrero has more upside that that, but again, the baseline is higher for him than for signing, say, another Mattias Donnet. We can translate his performance more easily, and it won't be a complete bust. At worst, he's likely slightly better than your fungible replacement player, and at best he'll be a solid contributor. This is a mindset shift.

The season is not over, but this is the heartening sign - faced with a season where high expectations have met pervasive mediocrity, United has not tried to fill the inside straight to save the season. Instead, they've made lower risk, lower potential reward moves, but ones that serve to develop depth and provide confidence in the new players. That makes me hopeful. I think, when all is said and done, this season is likely to be viewed with more disappointment than joy, but it won't be remembered as a travesty.

Debriefing for Match 13.15: L.A. Galaxy

D.C. United 4 : 1 Los Angeles Galaxy

Six Word Novel Recap

Martinez closes down on the Goldenballs.

Media, Traditional and Otherwise

The Washington Times, John Haydon: "The offensive trio of Luciano Emilio, Marcelo Gallardo and Jaime Moreno - dubbed the "Iron Triangle" - combined for four goals, and the oft-criticized defense kept Beckham and Landon Donovan off the scoreboard as United defeated the Galaxy 4-1 on Sunday in front of 35,979 at RFK Stadium."
The Washington Post, Steve Goff: "They watched Luciano Emilio score two goals, giving him nine during United's six-game unbeaten streak, and observed embattled goalkeeper Zach Wells make several excellent saves in his finest performance of the season. They saw Beckham largely neutralized by United's ever-tightening defense, and in the most emotional moment of the joyous day, they provided a thunderous ovation for veteran midfielder Ben Olsen, who made his 2008 debut in the second half after being sidelined because of a career-threatening ankle injury."
The Washington Times, Drew Hansen: "...on Sunday, with Olsen's injuries improving and with a week of training under his belt, he was back out on the pitch...When Olsen stood up to enter, he received one of the loudest ovations of the day from a crowd of 35,979 (no small feat when Beckham is in attendance). He replaced team captain Jaime Moreno, United's longest tenured player and MLS' all-time leading scorer. The two shared a hug, and then Moreno handed him the captain's armband."
WTOP News, Dave Johnson: "There were goals—five of them, and some beauties—but one of the biggest cheers of the day was reserved for a D.C. United veteran, and a further sign of soccer's standing in this country. There was a rumbling that built into a roar as Ben Olsen rose from the bench and entered the game against the L.A. Galaxy late in the second half.
The LA Times: is too pathetic to shell out for their own beat reporter, and uses an AP Feed. Pathetic.
UnitedMania, Chris Webb: "A 5th minute penalty conversion from Jaime Moreno got the hosts off to a dream start...United gave up the lead just five minutes later when Keystone Cops defending from United's back four gifted Edson Buddle his 10th goal of the season. United seemed to have the situation under control but a botched clearance between numerous United defenders ended up on the grateful foot of Buddle who slipped it past a stunned Zach Wells...United did indeed regain the lead in the 37th minute with Emilio's 9th goal of the season. Gallardo's brilliance in ball control in the middle of the field factored into a ball that eventually found it's way through the box to the left side where substitute Marc Burch, on for the injured Quaranta, lofted a cross to Emilio who headed back across goal past the diving Cronin for a 2-1 lead."
MLSNet, Charles Boehm: "A clash of No. 10s in front of the team benches drew blood and bad tempers in the 41st minute, as Donovan draped himself all over Gallardo's back as the D.C. playmaker held possession. Donovan's pushing and grabbing was met with a backwards elbow from Gallardo, sending his tormentor to the turf with a bloody nose...But United's midfield maestro took his next chance with aplomb, pushing the lead to two goals after smartly following the ball into the box as Emilio tried to turn on two defenders at the hour mark. Though his Brazilian teammate was well-defended, the ball took a quirky deflection into space and Gallardo was the quickest of the bunch, zipping forward to dink a savvy finish into the left side of the net to run the score to 3-1."
MLSNet, Chris Snear: "United put the game out of reach on one of the more simple goals Emilio he has scored all year to make the score 4-1 in the 69th minute. Gallardo played a ball wide right to Fred, who was close to an offside position on the right flank. The speedy Brazilian raced in to the penalty area and pushed the ball around a committed Cronin, to Emilio and the wide open goal."
The Offside: D.C. United, Jon: "Where to begin? Oh, I know. Greater than the win, or the crowd, or beating Becks. Ben Olsen, heart and soul of DC United, stepped back on the pitch for the time this season. Did he look great? No. Did it matter? Not at all."
Sideline Views, Andrea Canales: "DC an emphatic win at home. It might have been different if the call had been made for the elbow against Gallardo, but the home team took care of business."
DCUMD, Shatz: "Recently, United has been beating lesser opponents while giving up too many goalscoring opportunities. But in this match, against inarguably one of the most talented offensive teams in the league, DC dominated possession, dominated the scoreline, and performed admirably well on defense...Marcelo Gallardo was largely uninvolved for most of the first half, at least at times when he wasn't smacking Donovan in the nose."
BLCKDGRD, BDR: "Any questions on whether Marcelo Gallardo was the best player on the field? Yes, he gacked a couple, but his diagonals into space are brilliant. Moreno gets him, Emilio gets him, Martinez especially gets him, Namoff gets him, Quaranta gets him. It's going to be beautiful...Maybe the team is rounding - I'm still skeptical - but they needed nine of nine points out of this homestand before July's diversions, and they got nine points out of the homestand. And it feels to me like the team now has a personality it didn't for the first months. I'm still skeptical, but I'm no longer pessimistic."
Fighting Talker, Aaron Stollar: "Wells did absolutely everything needed to do today and I will give him full credit for it. You can’t fault him for the goal and he came up with a few spectacular saves today especially the tip while backing up from Landon’s shot."
Poplar Point Perspective, JCM: "DC United are back."

The Good

1. Ben Olsen: You can say, and we have said, all that you want about this team missing Ben Olsen, but that forgets how much we fans missed him. C'mon, you were playing the theme to The Natural when he retook the field in your head, right? Seeing him with the armband on, on the field, the great signs in the crowd "14 - Heart of a Lion" Go ahead, you got choked up. It's okay. We all did. For more on that, before it happened, I commend Dave Lifton's comparison to Mr. Reyna, and a shot at the Red Bull fans who are disgraceful. Read it.
   
2. The Imperial Stormtroopers of the Evil Empire Invade the Galaxy: I'll admit, when Tom Soehn and Marcello Gallardo were wondering about heat and humidity, part of me was worried that this was a team making excuses in advance for a lackluster effort. I was wrong. Tom Soehn ordered, cajoled, and dictated that his team run at the LA Defense, who wilted. It was good coaching, good tactics, and once weaknesses were found Tom Soehn got the team to exploit them for all they were worth. To that end, we should note that Gallardo, Burch, Fred, Tino, Emilio, and Moreno all had excellent games in taking on and executing a forceful attack, and moving in for the kill when LA was overcome by the elements.
   
3. LCDR Zach Wells: Some really good saves, some confidence building moves, and the one time he was beat it was thanks to three United defenders missing the mark. If you were waiting for a game where Zach Wells wasn't just adequate, but actually helped the team to win, this is the game, and accordingly we promote him to Lieutenant Commander (O-4).
   
4. Marc Burch: This was the first time I've seen him come in at left back and really do well. Part of that is the LA Defense, and the defensive contribution they got from their midfield on the right side. But part of it was Marc actually knowing how to create space and not let his left foot get shut down.
5. McTavish - Martinez: Special commendations to these gentlemen, who took their marking responsibilities seriously. Donovan was limited severely in his action, and Devon made some good, clinical plays to shore up what has been a ridiculously leaky central defense. Martinez vs. Beckham was wonderful. David would find space, but Martinez would close him down quickly rather then back off, and while he may have made the future Martinez generations pay for his defending, I was heartened to see it.
6. Landon Donovan: His team quit, but he never did. Credit where it is due.
   

The Bad

1. Ben Olsen: I'm a heartless bastard, but really, let's admit this - Ben Olsen is not match fit. I know, it doesn't matter, but I want to preempt any temptation that you might have in the wake of Tino going out early to say "Well, good thing we got Ben back just in time." He's not ready. He may not ever be fully fit this season. That's okay. What he did was enough, just don't put more on him than he needs to deal with right now.
2. F-R-E-*: Until Fre* manages to finish a chance, I am now refusing to finish typing his name. On that final goal, tell me you weren't relieved to see him pass up the shot to Emilio for the goal.
   
3. Gallardo's Gesticulations: We'll talk more about this, but I'm not entirely going to excuse the Gallardo bloodying of Landon's nose as purely accidental. Marcello felt remorse for his actions, and he should have. What's more, he imperiled the team with the risk of playing down a man.
   

Officiating Watch

Jair Marrufo got one big call right (the penalty awarded on the tackle of Quaranta in the fifth minute) but got far more wrong. He let tough fouls go all day. Beckham fouled Moreno. Moreno fouled Beckham. Too many fouls were allowed to play on. And yes, Gallardo deserved an ejection (and let's not say he's clear of things yet, since I wouldn't be totally surprised to hear of a league review). For two straight games, we've had officials whose lackadaisical approach to the Laws of the Game do not bias the match to one side or another, but rather endanger and detract from both sides.

The ARs, other than not helping out on the deserved red to Gallardo, seemed right on for the most part. Landon was off-side, if only just, on the one goal that was called back.

Likert Scale Grade: 2 -Below Average

Man of the Match

Devon McTavish. I know we had a brace from Emilio, but I want to reward what was one of the better defensive efforts this team has put forth against a very talented attacking side. Merit awards to Gallardo, Soehn, Emilio, Burch, Wells, and Martinez. Notes of Censure to Fre* and Perralta. Special Merit Award of Perpetual Honor and Gumption to Ben Olsen.

Final Thoughts

I've been thinking about this team all wrong. I've been expecting them to turn into "The Best Team in MLS" They're not going to do that. The defense, which should on paper be an upgrade, seems instead to have an upper limit of "acceptable" at the end of the season. The offense is finally turning into something fun to watch. Which leads me to what I should have been expecting from this team. They're not the best team in MLS, but they are "The Most Entertaining Team in MLS" The goals and attack are fun to watch, and the defense will have you on edge and could collapse like a building imploding at any moment.

And frankly, that's not a bad thing. I'll take fun to watch over crappy AND boring. This team won't be humming along as a surgical tool ever this season. And that's okay. Accept the gifts we are given, and let's have fun. United will no doubt lose more games this season, and may look damn foolish during some of them, but that's okay. Enjoy the ride.

In advance of Sunday midday...

I was on the fence about this post. It is silly, certainly. I thought I might discuss the horizontal symmetries of the two clubs' jersey sponsors.

See?

Or I might mention the fact that Greg Vanney is now a "Herbalife-sponsored player" (see: New Stars in the LA Galaxy) and has 10 appearances this season for the Galaxy after most recently playing for DC United.

Or I might find some ridiculous quote to mock from herbalife.com; perhaps this...

Our Founder Mark Hughes: As a teenager he made a decision to improve people’s lives with better nutrition. This led him to found Herbalife in 1980.

Forget the fact that the Herbalife website is virtually impossible to navigate. You have to walk a tightrope with your mouse to use the dropdowns across the top of the site. With a touchpad, that's hard.

But then I found what I was looking for and I knew that "worlds colliding" was the theme of the post that I was looking for.

I saw this (4th item) and some smoke came out of my ears....

Grammy Winner Nelly Furtado Favors Liftoff®
According to People magazine, award-winning recording artist Nelly Furtado favors Liftoff® effervescent dietary supplement for "quick-me-ups." Furtado told People that she used Liftoff® tablets to get ready for her high-energy performance during the 2007 Grammy Awards.

BECAUSE...

Remember this?




So who will she be supporting on Sunday?

Debriefing for Match 13.14: San Jose Earthquakes

D.C. United 3 : 1 San Jose Earthquakes

Six Word Novel Recap

Gonzalo Martinez's right foot of DOOM!

Media, Traditional and Otherwise

The Washington Post, Steve Goff: "D.C. United had plenty to savor from its 3-1 victory over the San Jose Earthquakes yesterday at RFK Stadium, a result that extended its unbeaten streak to five and pulled the club into a three-way tie for fourth place in MLS's Eastern Conference....But from Coach Tom Soehn's perspective, United (6-7-1) was fortunate to escape with a third victory in a row. He agonized over a bland first half and then watched goalkeeper Zach Wells make another critical blunder."
The Mercury News, David Lifton (!!): "The Earthquakes had the better of play through much of the afternoon before losing 3-1 to D.C. United in a Major League Soccer match Sunday at RFK Stadium."
The Washington Times, John Haydon: "The deadlock soon was broken when Simms scored in the 50th minute...The lead vanished a minute later, however, when Wells failed to hold on to James Riley's cross. The United goalie tried to reclaim the ball, but it bounced to John Cunliffe, who tapped it home...United was back in the lead four minutes later when Martinez whipped in a blistering shot from 16 yards after speeding away from midfielder Ronnie O'Brien."
MLSNet, Charles Boehm: "...the Black-and-Red overcame a sluggish first half and a poorly-timed error from goalkeeper Zach Wells to earn their fourth win in the last five games."
MLSNet, Charles Boehm: "McTavish found himself playing a central role in the game's next pivotal moment, too, when the United utility man reached a loose ball well before James Riley some eight minutes from full time.The Quakes defender had already committed himself with a rash slide tackle aimed right for McTavish's ankle, however, upending his rival and drawing a swift decision from referee Alex Prus, who produced a red card and patiently waited for the prone Riley to get off the turf before brandishing it in his direction for the meaty challenge."
Center Line Soccer, Jay Hipps: "It was a result that the Earthquakes will have to chalk up to experience. All week, the team’s coaches and players spoke of the importance of bringing the proper aggressive attitude to each match, and they succeeded in unleashing that determination against DC. Attitude alone can’t win matches, though — there needs to be quality as well, and in that, the Quakes were lacking."
UnitedMania, Chris Webb: "There is a school of thought in most sports that says the sign of a good team is getting a result when they are not playing at their best. I think United's 3-1 win over San Jose this afternoon firmly puts their win in that category"
BLCKDGRD, BDR: "I'm tired of typing 'good teams win games they ought to win' because United is not yet a good team, and a decent team beats United yesterday. United is not good enough, cohesive enough, organized enough, or fluid enough to take halves off against anybody.' Good teams stomp teams they ought to stomp' is not the same as 'good teams gut out games they ought to win.' The second United begins to think they are all that, they aren't. "
MLSNet, Chris Snear: "in the end, United have more talent in most of the critical areas than the Quakes and therein lies the primary difference between the two clubs, which was evident United's 3-1 win against the Quakes."
DCSportsBox, Abram Fox: "In a reverse of the age-old adage, it was the moveable object against the stoppable force. " [That's a decent line.]
The Far Post, Mark McClure: "I still think United is an ordinary team that is benefiting from a series of home games against weak opponents. But now things get interesting . . . LA and then Chivas (Mexican kind) come to town for the next two games. (That Open Cup game in between doesn’t count and you know it.) Two wins from those two games will convince me United is legit."
The Fullback Files, Fullback: "It wasn't just on the goal that Gonzalo Martinez was bombing forward. And what a peach of a goal it was! Fullbacks everywhere will be putting that one in a replay loop on the HD sets tonight."
DCUMD, Shatz: "The past two weeks, DC has beaten the teams that they are supposed to beat. And that's good and continuing to do that should get us into the playoffs. But it's not inspiring a whole lot of confidence that we'll do very well in the playoffs, or in international competitions."
Behind the Badge, The Management: "[San Jose defender Kelly Gray says...] I hate to say luck but we got a couple of unlucky plays where a little deflection causes a goal."
The Offside: San Jose Earthquakes, Sean: "I hate to play the optimist once again, but if a couple deflections go our way (or don’t, as it were), I think we have a much different game on our hands."

The Good

1. Gonzalo Martinez: Lovely game on both sides of the ball. Most of the time when a back on the sidelines is facing his own goal, and there's high pressure coming his way, I get nervous if he doesn't immediately execute the back pass to the keeper. Martinez's ability to turn under pressure, which we have seen regularly the past few games, is a higher risk move, but one that pays off with better possession at midfield. Add to that a wonderful goal, just a fantastic strike from the corner of the box to the far post, and it was a lovely opening hour for him. The last thirty minutes, complete with a fouls in a dangerous area and a poorly timed tackle for a yellow-card, make this not quite the best effort possible, but it was still damn good.
2. Tom Soehn, Realist: I was going to kick my radio is Tom Soehn started to talk about how good a game this was, and how his team gritted out a result. The fact that Tom was also disappointed in his players, and that he was willing to make changes all game long, speaks well of him.
   

The Bad

1. Fred: Yeah, looking through the game again, he had an awful game. Far too many give aways, and not a good looking performance when he was pulled (legitimately) from the match. You're better than that. You can use the pacifier in goal celebrations provided you don't ever actually act as a spoiled child, and that didn't happen in this game.
2. Lt. Zach Wells: The knives are out for Zack (listen to the United Mania podcast for a great example), and really, he does deserve every bit of flack for the goal that he allowed. Trying to recreate a Randy Moss one handed end zone grab is never a good idea, that ball should have been punched out twenty yards. That being said, he avoids demotion for some areas of good: A strong save on Ivan Guerrero in the first half, and twice coming off his line to do just barely enough to save a goal. In the first instance, he managed to get enough of the ball to send it out for a corner, and in the second he at least bought time and angle for Devon McTavish to get back. So let's not forget those as well. Still, it was an awful goal that he gave up.
   
3. The huge ever growing sucking hole that lives in the center of our defense: Okay, Perralta had a better game, but here's my question. To my mind, our two weakest defenders are Perralta and McTavish. That's why I'd rather put Martinez in the middle and Burch on the left, sacrificing some good left back work for a stronger center presence for better cohesion right in front of our shaky keeper. Of course, tactically, Tom Soehn may well have made the right chance against a weak San Jose offense, so I'm not up in arms about the choice this week. But against Los Angeles next week? Clyde Simms will have to stay at home more, or something, because we are going to be carved up otherwise.
4. Midfield Depth: We have two wing players with Olsen absent - Tino and Fred. That's it. Cordeiro hasn't established himself as a consistently viable option, McTavish and Mediate are downgrades, and Burch is an acceptable left back but awful left wing. To think what this team would be like if we hadn't signed Tino is a worry. If there is a shopping list for the summer transfer window, a center back and a left winger should at least be considered at this time. Or perhaps Quavas Kirk, or Murphy, or Cordeiro will improve to the point of earning the spot. But it is a worry. Fred will get five yellows at some point this season, and Tino getting another suspension is not entirely out of the question.
   
   On another note, the Gallardo-United mix is not right. Yes, Gallardo is making smart plays at times in feeding the ball in, but really, the rest of United is not really adjusting to his game. Also, Gallardo is not adjusting his game for the rest of United. There's a disconnect there. Two great tastes that don't go great together yet. BDR has this covered from the Gallardo is good perspective, but I think there's another side to the coin as well (or, being as there are so many of us, the same side of two different coins?)
   

Officiating Watch

Alex Prus has a game that managed to disadvantage both teams. There were a ton of fouls not called on both teams, though DC probably got the better of it. Still, he created at atmosphere that positively encouraged James Riley's reckless tackle, and it made me sick. You could tell it was building. I'm saying, this was a poor performance all the way around. Awful. The ARs were fine, except for Alex waving off their flags at times he should not have. Alex Prus, today's Worst... Person... In the World!

At least, until Matt Reis does something new.

Likert Scale Grade: 1 - Bad.

Man of the Match

Gonzalo Martinez, congratulations. Merit award Gallardo. Notes of censure to McTavish (missing his runner), Wells (circus catch, or not as the case may be), and Fred.

Final Thoughts

Take the win, take the points, and take the tongue lashing from your coach. Los Angeles is coming. Now, under the rule of "Soccer-sometimes it just has to be contrary to your expectations" I expect a low scoring game next week. A 1-0 or 0-0 game. Really. I do.

That being said, I'm also now willing to say Tom Soehn's job is safe for the rest of the season, but that's about it. His job does not have, and should not have, security beyond the last game played. Still, that's a much longer horizon than he did have. It means I'm not evaluating him result to result, which is the situation we were in a few games ago.

Five hundred, by the international break. It's important to remember that would have been a disappointment pre-season, but right now it is the best we can hope for, and seems like a major fight back. Seems that way. But the second half of the season is going to be tougher than the first half, and that's something else to remember. It's not going to get easier in August and September.

Debriefing for Match 13.13: New York Red Bulls

D.C. United 4 : 1 New York Red Bulls

Six Word Novel Recap

Rebound? Or Regression to the Mean?

Media, Traditional and Otherwise

The Washington Times, John Haydon: "The revival of Luciano Emilio continues. Emilio scored three goals Saturday night - his first MLS hat trick - as D.C. United beat the New York Red Bulls 4-1 at RFK Stadium."
The Washington Post, Steve Goff: "Despite the absence of playmaker Marcelo Gallardo and top defender Bryan Namoff because of red card suspensions, United (5-7-1) offered another comprehensive attacking performance and overtook New York (4-4-3) for fifth place in the Eastern Conference."
UnitedMania, Chris Webb: "I think it's safe to say that Luciano Emilio has put his slow start to the 2008 MLS season behind him. "
MLSNet, Charles Boehm: "With key veterans Juan Pablo Angel and Claudio Reyna sidelined by injury and young striker Jozy Altidore recently sold to Spanish side Villareal, the visitors entered the match shorthanded and United showed no mercy..."
The Fullback Files, Fullback: "...Martinez, on the other hand, seems ferociously competent, and is completely unafraid and fully determined to make vital tackles. He also reads the game well, cutting down angles for though balls, running down wide threats, and keeping his head up when in possession. I was a bit concerned that playing him on the right with Burch on the left--which Soehn's comments had pretty much confirmed for me as early as the aftermath of the reserve match against Chicago--might lead to Burch getting schooled for pace by Dane Richards, but that threat never really materialized, whether through good play by Burch, cover from McTavish, or outright incompetence by the Metrobulltards"
MetroFanatic: "Did you know that, back in 1996, the MetroStars won their first two matches at RFK? Since then, they've won just five other times at their hated rivals, getting trounced time and time again. It doesn't matter if Metro is fielding a full lineup, or a shortened one like tonight. It doesn't matter if they're playing well coming into the match, or not. With few exceptions, RFK is Metro graveyard, as it was tonight, as DC Scum took Metro apart, winning 4:1 and jumping them in the standings."
DCSportsBox, Abram Fox: "...in the second half, Soehn said. 'I came in [to the locker room at the half] disappointed that we didn’t play better.'"
Fighting Talker, Aaron Stollar: "If this were an actual rivalry, New York would’ve actually tried to get a result yesterday. Instead, they looked entirely like they’d chalked this one up as a loss on the bus south and just wanted to get through the bludgeoning as quickly as possible. Rivals don’t do that. The New York Red Bulls do."
Injury Time, AT: "i don't even know where to begin in talking about this 4-1 loss, but we can start right off with the critical injuries. reyna and angel were out with back problems, and as shep messing pointed out during the game, there seems to be a whole lot of back injuries going around this spring in new york and maybe it's time to look at the type of grass they're practicing and playing on."
BlackDogRed, BDR: "It's important when evaluating this game to remember Metro fans suck, but, hard as they try, they just can't suck as bad as their soccer team...a sign of progress, not a sign of deliverance."
The Offside: DCUnited, jon: "When Woly is your scoring threat, you’re screwed from the get go. DC came out a little flat, but within 10 minutes, they realized the team they were playing against would struggle in the USL."
The Offside: Red Bull New York, Dave Martinez: "What else can I tell you? My last post said it loud and clear - 'this is a statement game.' And what is the statement thats been made? 'We need help. Urgently.'"

The Good

1. Luci Keeps the Football in Place: As much as I distrust cliches, perhaps there is some truth the entire "Goal scorers score in bunches, so the drought will eventually be quenched." To be honest, droughts make me nervous, but Emilio has now scored in several games, and a hat trick does seem to be a fitting punctuation mark. Right now, on MLSNet, the top goal scoring list reads "Donovan - Buddle - Emilio and Cooper" And that's pretty amazing, so let me admit that the conventional wisdom may well be the correct wisdom: the goals were going to come. That being said, I think there is a difference in play. This isn't simply a matter of Emilio getting breaks he wasn't getting before. Instead, there are two things that are different between Emilio now and Emilio circa two months ago. Now he's getting the ball facing the goal (all three of his goals were situations where his first touch in the attack was with him facing net, not with this back to goal). That's partially from more effort in his runs, but also to the team getting him the ball in a better position. The other change is the way he's dealing with contact. Emilio's first goal saw him fight through a marker to get on the end of Fred's cross, and two months ago I'm not sure he had the strength to do that. And that's really a difference for him, and an encouraging one.
2. Handicapped to Even: Red Bull fans can rightly point out that they had no Jozy, and no Angel. But before this is used as a "DC just beat up on a team missing key players" let's not forget that DC was missing Gallardo, Namoff, and Olsen. So both teams had equal excuse to play the "we're missing key starters" card, but only one team did.
3. Playmaking from the Middle: Both Quaranta and Fred, especially Fred, did excellent jobs pinching in from the wing to create attacking moves. Fred getting moved into the middle for the ineffective playmaking of Dyachenko was actually a strong move by Tom Soehn. Rod was proving a disappointment, but the position switch maximized the ability on the field. Quaranta's through ball to Fred was easily the start of the prettiest goal scored by United this year.
4. Clyde Simms: Getting him a statistic to help demonstrate his ability is a lovely thing. He has done so much for this team, Moreno's decision to trust him to take that shot rewards some strong defensive play all season.
5. LT. Zach Wells: A promotion to O-3 for Zach. Yes, the clean sheet wasn't kept, but his decision making in coming off his line was better this game than I can remember for some time. So we're bumping him up a rank.
6. Tom Soehn: He put out a line-up compensating for suspensions, but also had the ability to play tactically to both minimize our shortcomings for what we were giving up. Quaranta and Fred would pinch into the middle as needed to support Dyachenko in the first half, and Emilio and Moreno were both going wide at the same moments. That was good play in this game, but not for every game. For the next match against San Jose, Fred and (McTavish/Burch/Kirk) must stay wide and let Gallardo and Simms fill the middle of the field.
7. Jaime Moreno: Now, let me say this. While he's playing wonderfully the last few games, aren't you a bit concerned about him running out of gas in August? I am.
   

The Bad

1. How United didn't score: One set piece goal, three goals on the counter, zero from a build from possession (unless you count earning the set piece.)
   
2. Service Level Agreements: Here's the thing you can legitimately wonder about. That United scores four goals is fair, but if Juan Pable Angel is playing, or Jozy is still around, doesn't one of them get on the end of Dave van der Bergh's multiple dangerous serves into the box, and New York gets one or two more goals, right? Right. United still struggles wit the Terry Cooke's of the world, and this game was no exception. United was also fortunate that New York never really tried to play in long balls to Dane Richards over the top, another bug-a-boo of games past.
3. Quavas Kirk: United was off-side once in this game, and it was Kirk who was offside despite coming in only at the 72nd minute. This is a problem for him, as he really needs to see the line better.
   

Officiating Watch

Kevin Stott and the ARs had a decent game. I think New York could have argued that Perralta was interfering with the play from an off-side position on the Simms goal (but even the replays there with regards to Perralta's position were inconclusive to me). The cards and fouls seemed about right, and despite the blowout the game never felt like it was going to get out of hand. So kidos for that.

Likert Scale Grade: 4 - Good.

Man of the Match

Luciano Emilio, obviously. Merit awards to Tino, Clyde, Fred, Jaime, Zach Wells, and Mark Burch. Small notes of censure to Quavas Kirk.

Final Thoughts

Let me admit that I missed the true importance of the Chicago game. The key was that United fought through another game that looked like it might get away from them, the same way they continued to fight against New England. The importance of playing for the shirt should never be understated, and I missed the boat on that.

That being said, let me say the thing that's probably going to be considered unfair -= Tom Soehn's job should not yet be considered safe for this season. We've had two good results, and have a chance to go to Superliga at .500, in which case his job is safe for the season. But, having shown that this team is capable of fighting through good teams (Chicago) and not so good (Toronto) it's clear that he does have the personnel he needs, the question of coaching is still not academic.

And right now, we're basking in the glow of a wonderful come-back win against Chicago, and a strong performance against New York. Still, that shouldn't discount from just what a big hole United dug for itself at the start of the season, and some of the abominable performances that were seen in that time frame. If, and I hope this doesn't happen, but if United is made to look silly by San Jose and Los Angeles, doesn't that have to factor into our opinion? Still, I've said that if a move were to be made, it should be made earlier rather than later, and after L.A. is as late as I would be willing to leave it. After that, the season should be his, and all the indications are that he has weathered the storm and started actually varying his tactics accordingly.

To be sure, part of that was the circumstances of this match. With suspensions to Gallardo and Namoff, Tom couldn't just play the same as he did against Chicago, he was forced by the roster to move things around. However, with them coming back, I expect him once again to adjust to the demands of that game. San Jose does have some threats for an expansion team, and we simply can't expect to use the United Form Letter game plan against them. The big thing will be the use of space. Frank Yallop, coming into RFK, is going to try as much as possible to make things as narrow as possible, and United must play wide in a way they didn't have to against New York. If that happens, and United continues to solidify results, then we can say that this team is in full recovery.

Debriefing for Match 13.08: At Chivas USA

Chivas USA 3 : 1 D.C. United

Six Word Novel Recap

Early goal... late defeat... final accounting?

Media, Traditional and Otherwise

The LA Times, Grahame Jones: "D.C. United rode the talents of former Argentine World Cup midfielder Marcelo Gallardo to a 1-0 halftime lead over Chivas USA... Then, in a thoroughly unexpected turn of events, Chivas USA answered with two late goals from two good players -- Jesse March and Sacha Kljestan -- and then got another from teenager Jorge Flores to come away with a memorable 3-1 Major League Soccer victory."
The Washington Post, Steve Goff: " It happened so suddenly and without any warning."
UnitedMania, Chris Webb: "United now has lost all four road matches this season and have been outscored 11-1 in those games. To add insult to injury this was the first ever win over United for Chivas USA in six matches."
MLSNet, Danny Bueno: "Marcelo Gallardo had put the visitors ahead in the 30th minute with a tremendous goal and D.C. United looked ready to take advantage of an injury-depleted Chivas USA squad that was missing nine players, including their entire starting defensive backline."
MLSNet, Luis Bueno: "Marsch finally gave the home crowd something to cheer about in the 73rd minute. Harris tried but failed to reach a loose ball inside the penalty area. Wells, though, dived and failed to collect the ball. Marsch ran onto the ball and softly slipped it into the back of the goal. Kljestan continued the late offensive surge. Harris tracked down a bouncing ball on the right flank and slipped a well-placed ball to the center of the box. Kljestan ran onto the ball and tucked it into the back of the net before heading toward a pocket of United supporters and karate-kicking his way toward a celebration."
Booked For Dissent, Dave Lifton: "United allowed themselves to get beat because they had no response to Chivas’ physicality. Instead, they got scared every time a Chivas player got near them, which led to cautious, hesitant play, resulting in turnovers. "
You Are My Minions, Landru: "It's also, not at all coincidentally, time to note the major role that awesome goalkeeping has played in DCU's success lo these many years. Great DCU teams had memorable keepers--Scott Garlick, Tom Presthus, Nick Rimando, and it appears all-too-briefly, Troy Perkins. Semen Wells is on a track to be the wrong kind of memorable. Except a keeper doesn't stay on that track long enough to become truly memorable."
DCUMD, Shatz: "I was all ready to come on here and give Tom Soehn props for putting together a good starting lineup that played really pretty well for 30 minutes. But that's about as far as it went. Because the tactical decision to sit back and defend a single goal lead has NEVER WORKED in this league...So we might as well start the countdown. If this persists, and there's no reason to believe that anything will change over the next few days, it will be exactly one week from today that Tom Soehn will be out of a job. That's Sunday May 25. And that will already be too late."
An American's View..., Brian Garrison: "It might be just as bad a situation if United replaces Soehn during this stretch as opposed to waiting until June. I really cannot see the club getting any better with Soehn at the helm. Maybe it is time for him to go down with his ship?"
BlackDogRed, BDR: "It's entirely plausible that Soehn is doing a shitty job, but I don't think it possible, or fair, to determine with any accuracy how shitty a shitty job he's doing considering what crappy tools he has at his disposal. What if Soehn is getting all that can be gotten out of these mutts?"
BehindTheBadge, The Management (feat. Tom Soehn): "But the first half I thought we had a game plan and we stuck to it, we were hard to play against, we got our goal. In the second half they came out with a bit more intensity and I don’t think we handled it well." [NOTE: And did you have a game plan in the second half? Did you stick with it? C'mon now... -D]

The Good

1. Gallardo's Goal: In a season starved for highlights, it was a good one. Not like his volley against RSL, but good none-the-less. I'm glad Behind The Badge has it up for you to watch. Really. Watch it, and pretend the entire game was like that. You might even come to believe it. We have always been at war with Chivasia.
   
2. Bryan Namoff: Another game where he was running his shorts off for most of the match. He makes mistakes, he gets beaten, but damn if he isn't trying. There was always talk of handing the armband to Ben Olsen at some point, but perhaps Ben should turn around and hand it to Bryan.
3. Atmosphere in the Corner: If we stipulate that certain Calvinists are right, and that there is an elect number of people that go to heaven come the Rapture, then certainly the brothers and sisters I was fortunate to join at the Home Depot Center have done enough to earn their place come Armageddon.
   

The Bad

1. Analysis from the Corner: Really, it's damn difficult to make sense of the game from down there. Even without the alcohol, you just don't have a good look at the game. That being said...
2. Aren't We Supposed to Play With the Lead? Yeah, let me say something I think I said on the UnitedMania Podcast. There's an old baseball maxim, I think attributed to Earl Weaver, that "If you play for the one run inning, that's exactly what you'll get." I think that also applies to us in the second half - "If you play not to score a goal, you'll succeed."
   
3. Using the Field: Ryan Cordeiro proved he's a standout in the reserve games, but never seemed to fully grasp his role in how to occasionally use both the left and right flanks.
   
4. LTJG Zach Wells: I was prepared to promote him after his performance against Chicago. Sadly, this performance negates it, as he lets in a dribbler and gives up a rebound. So we'll keep his rank unchanged, for the time being

Officiating Watch

Apparently the ARs had the offsides calls right. Michael Kennedy is a twerp, but no more annoying than any other official.

Likert Scale Grade: 3 - Average

Man of the Match

N/A. Merit award to Namoff. Goat to... Jaime Moreno, who never seemed to do what a captain needs to do. He's the one who should be harassing the ref, not Gallardo. He's the one that needed to give the team a quick reality check in the second half as the field started to tilt.

Adjusted Results

No adjustments.

Final Thoughts

Given this line-up, with the benching of Emilio and others, it had to be looked as a message from Soehn. So I feel that I have to give one game for the message to sink in. But that being said, all I asked for after the Chicago game was good basic soccer. Did you see that? I did for a decent portion of the game, but at the moment when the second half came around, we started making the same mistakes that have plagued us all season. Tom Soehn had a week and a half, even with a new line-up, to figure out how he wanted to simply move the ball around the field, and we couldn't do it in the second half. And that's a problem.

I'll be honest. He's got exactly one game left with me. And then, well, I might make the change. But if we don't do it in the next four games, then let's consign the season.

Shatz is writing that this is a rebuilding season. Well, it is now, but we were promised a shiny new car. It just happens to have been hit by a semi.

One game for Soehn. He's made his last possible move, now we'll see if it works. It's not that I think even that he's the problem, but the only move that can be made now to save the season has his name on it. Make the move, or consign the season to memory.

The Freezer for 18 April 2008

The US Soccer Fragility Index, known as the Freezer, is the anti-power poll. Each week, Oscar, Kinney, Bob and D have a frank discussion over email and chat to rank the most feeble, the most tenuous, and the overall weakest things in US Soccer, and we check our results with commenters in our pre-Freezer solicitation post. And really, that actually happened this time, which is kinda cool.

And really, we're a year ahead of the curve, as even Slate magazine has decided that the Power Poll concept is tired. Should we put power polls themseleves in the freezer. And then, couldn't you still argue that this is a power poll, just one with a goatee saying things like "Your agonizer, please." The mind boggles.

Regardless, once again we plunge United into the Freezer, but we're keeping them near the top for easy retrieval in the event they stop playing to our dark fears. Monsters of the id that they are. Anyways, let's do the damage:

Debriefing for Match 13.03: At Real Salt LAke

Real Salt Lake 4 : 0 D.C. United

Six Word Novel Recap

It's as bad as it looked.

Media, Traditional and Otherwise

The Washington Post, Steve Goff: "...instead of showing depth and versatility, United offered another dreary performance at Rice-Eccles Stadium and was embarrassed by Real Salt Lake, 4-0, in front of 13,193 observers.
The Desert News, James Edwards: "RSL prevailed by scoring twice in the opening 20 minutes and then twice more in the closing 15 minutes. "
The Salt Lake Tribune, Michael Lewis: "Beckerman scored twice, while strikers Fabian Espindola and Robbie Findley each added a goal as RSL handed United its worst loss in nearly four years, and its first 4-0 defeat in nearly seven. "
MLSNet, John Coon: "...in the 19th minute Kovalenko found Fabian Espindola with a long booming lob which he plunked down inside the box. Espindola controlled the ball and fired at the net from a sideways angle and his shot barreled past both Gonzalo Peralta and Carvallo and created a 2-0 lead for RSL. Kovalenko's performance seems all the more remarkable considering he was almost scratched from the starting lineup because of back spasms."
MLSNet, Scott McAlliste: "'We still have a long way to go,' said Soehn. 'It's unacceptable to go down like we did tonight. I constantly question the character of teams, and that character gets challenged not only from the first 11, but it's challenged through the whole roster.'"
UnitedMania, Chris Webb: "There was plenty of blame to go around from the bad field surface to the misjudging of bounces all night long and Real Salt Lake was simply waiting in the weeds for United to make the mistakes they made all night long. "
DCSportsBox, Abram Fox: "United coach Tom Soehn inserted forward Santino Quaranta in place of Marc Burch for the second half in hopes of generating more offense to no avail. Rather, it was a Real Salt Lake second half sub who guaranteed the game’s outcome."
Behind the Badge, Doug Hicks: "Not our best effort tonight, to be sure. Kyle Beckerman scored twice and United suffered its worst defeat in regular season League play since a 1-5 loss in Dallas on July 24, 2004." [Note: You know it's bad when they sub Doug Hicks in for The Management]
The Edgell Supporters: "The Ben Cup may have already been put out of reach for another year. This is disgusting to me. My namesake cup, against one of the worst teams in the MLS, how could I go wrong?" [Note: The Ben Cup is now a more worthwhile trophy than the Atlantic Cup.]
Booked for Dissent, Dave Lifton: "I’m not going to lose too much sleep tonight over this result. Just like last year, it’s pretty clear that Tom Soehn wasn’t taking this game too seriously, or else he wouldn’t have put out the lineup he did..."
Fighting Talker, Aaron Stollar: "...the United brass made the decision that it was acceptable for the team to lose this match...It does no one any good to have MLS teams 'take nights off' like DC did on Saturday. One hoped that would stay in the NBA..."
AYL Soccer, Aaron Bentley: "DC’s locker room was somber. When asked if playing so many games in the last few days had anything to do with his team’s loss, Jaime Moreno, stated, 'We don’t want to look for excuses.' He went on to say that today RSL proved it was hungrier for the win and that his team needed to prepare better."
RSLFM, FM: "And as has been adequately detailed elsewhere, this opponent can in no way be confused with DC United playing at full strength. They were noticeably lacking in terms of both fitness & roster selection."
The Fullback Files, Fullback: "Okay, I get that the 3-back system has been working pretty well as of late, but I've got a couple of questions. One--why was Mediate one of the back three? I get that we're making him a utility wide-man, and I can see him playing fullback, but why wouldn't you play Mediate on the wing with McTavish in the back? Not that Mediate made that many mistakes--I'm just curious. On to question two. Why go with the three backs when the surface encourages pump-and-dump over the top stuff? I understand the need to rest folks due to fixture congestion, but wouldn't Martinez' speed have been pretty helpful back there?"
DCUMD, Shatz: "This game was ugly, but I wouldn't necessarily call it a predictor of anything else that will happen this year. This is the second game this year where the offense has been anemic, but I'm not counting on that happening very often. Just like a lot of other people, I was expecting DC to come up soft in this game, but I'm also expecting them to shoot out of the gates against Columbus on Thursday. In fact, I'll go so far as to predict that Thursday's match will be the start of yet another early season DC United sprint into first place and a considerable lead ahead of the rest of the Eastern Conference."
Poplar Point Perspective, JCM: "Oh, holy shit! This was the worst performance by a DC United team since the 4-0 shellacking in the playoffs by Chicago in 2005. There was nothing redeeming about it. Nothing" [Note: Sometimes I avoid expletives. After Saturday? Not so much.]
BLCKDGRD, BDR: "My bigger fear? The team has no personality, no defining spirit: can the loss of Ben Olsen be over-estimated?"
RSL Malcontent, Donk: "...This game could have been much worse for DC..."
The Offside - D.C. United, jon: "BOOOOOOO."
The Far Post, Thaddeus Byron Aloysius Dopenhopper: "D.C. United announced today that Real Salt Lake will sponsor their jersey for all games played in the state of Utah. 'They totally own us in Utah,' explained United’s management 'so we thought we might as well get something for it.'" [Note: It's funny because it hurts.]

The Good

1. Dema Kovalenko: C'mon, you know when we let him go that there would come a day. It just happened to be Saturday.
   
2. Getting Rest: I don't argue the decision to give Gallardo, Martinez, Wells, and even to some degree Quaranta a breather. I wonder if he had to do it all at once, but hey, this is something we'll have to get used to. Rotation will be important especially later in the season, so let's get used to the bitter taste of that medicine right now.
   
3. The end of RES?: Everytime I see that stadium, I think of My Cousin Vinnie... "The two Utes..."
   

The Bad

1. Tactical Disaster: As I wrote in the First Impressions, I have no problem with key starters resting. I do have a problem thinking that Dyachenko is a one for one swap with Gallardo, or that Mediate is a one for one swap with Martinez. There is a time to blame players, but this one really feels like it falls at the feet of the coaching staff's decisions. Players are supposed to be the ones that decide the game, but there's no excuse handicapping them. I want to write a seperate post about something this game also illustrated, but I'll summarize it this way: You system is not your formation. Formations are tactical, systems strategic. Confusing the two results in games like we saw Saturday.
   
2. Backline Organization: You can choose to excuse Carvallo the individual goals. That's fine. But the backline also looked woefully disorganized, which is not. Whether the key force on the backline is Martinez or Wells (or the byplay of the two combined), it is clear that someone was not in command. And that is inexcusable.
3. Gonzalo P | Gonzalo M: From commenter RKE in the First Impressions post: "Martinez is the quieter Gonzalo, but he's essential. Those two work so well together, making up for each other's weakness. Paralta was only half there without him." Agreed 100%.
   
4. "Burn the Tapes": I'm hearing this, even from people who I respect (or whose podcasts I respect, as the case may be.) This is a game worth getting mad over, if only so we don't pretend it didn't happen and do this again. Which we might. Not even next year, or at the end of the season, but in a few months when the schedule congestion accelerates. This is a warning shot fired directly across the bow.
   

Officiating Watch

It wasn't a poorly officiated match, but it wasn't a particularly good one either. I have two problems: Center official Richard Heron was inconsistent in his foul calling, and I got the sense that he was harsher on RSL than on United. I'm not about to let an official off the hook for calling things our way. His decision to award no extra time at the end of the game, simply to save United some embarrassment, is not in keeping with the laws of the game. I'm not saying it's likely, but if RSL is in a tiebreaker situation to make the playoffs with someone, and it comes to goal differential, might they have wanted another three minutes or so.

The more defensible call was the yellow to Rod Dyachenko, which I thought could have been a red. As I looked at it in real time, I think Rod was trying to play the ball, but it looked like both a "serious foul play" and potentially "violent conduct," both a player could be sent off for. The caution was given for a "tackle from behind" rather than what it really was -- a kick in the head. Looking at the Advice to Referees, my guess is that Richard Heron judged the foul to be "reckless" (12.3) but I would seriously have considered sending Dyachenko off under 12.33 for a serious foul play. His boot was very, very high.

Likert Scale Grade: 3 - Fair

Man of the Match

N/A. Merit awards to Fred and Clyde. Your goat is Tom Soehn.

Adjusted Results

No adjustment, though one could see a way clear to adding a fifth RSL goal if one wanted to. Still, I think the four they got is fair enough, and the duck egg for United stands. To date, United has an adjusted record of 1-2-0 with 5GF and 8GA for a -3 GD

Final Thoughts

This is not a game to pretend did not happen. This is a game to get angry about. Not because there wasn't a reason to throw the game, as Lifton or Stollar might argue. I can get that. But rather we should be angry because of our failure to learn. As much as we disparage formations like the 4-5-1, they have their use, and perhaps Saturday night made have made sense. Let our substitutes try and grind out a game. Fine. But what we did instead was put them in a situation where they were destined to be embarrassed. And that's a lesson we should not forget. It was a betrayal of our players. For the rest of this note, I turn it over to Howard Beale: "Well, I'm not gonna leave you alone. I want you to get mad! I don't want you to protest. I don't want you to riot - I don't want you to write to your congressman because I wouldn't know what to tell you to write. All I know is that first you've got to get mad."

Interactivity

I am pleased to announce that The Freezer will be returning to The DCenters for a second season. We'll try and make it a recurring feature each Thursday, and this year, to allow for greater participation, we'll call for submissions on the Freezer each Wednesday. While I certainly have ideas on where to rank things, I'd like to take into account your thoughts on the matter. Right now, Mo Johnston, Alexi Lalas, the New England Revolution, Frankie Yallop, Carlos Ruiz, DC Stadium Plans, and others are all candidates to make appearances in the debut of the Freezer this year, but feel free to include your suggestions in the comments for a Freezer entry.

Now, two days ago commenter Nick asked the following provocative question, and I will reprint his comment in full:

D,

I would like for you to weigh in on this topic if you get a chance:

DCU is a four-time MLS champ, playing in a decent sports town with a large population. DCU has been successful on and off the feel, and has a huge presence, including media, within the community. DCU puts out a great product every year. DCU's front office, considered the best year-in and year-out works its ass off and achieves season ticket sales in the 9.000 range.

Seattle FC has no team, no players, no wins, no SSS, and a front office that just began working. Seattle FC will not even play a game until a year from now. Seattle has sold more than 13,000 season tickets.

Philly has no team, etc, two years out, etc. Philly has done no advertising. Philly has sold more than 5,000 season tickets.

Could you weigh in on this and try to offer some explanation as to why we struggle to get 10K season tix and Philly gets half of that 2 years out without spending a dollar on advertising?

That's a decent question Nick. Commenter Skippy in the same thread noted that there is some excitement about a new team, but also concurred to a larger point: "I remember looking at RFK attendance halfway through last year and I think DC's attendance was always 2nd or third, which isn't lousy, but considering DCU's success, I know what you mean."

Now, full disclosure. For the first time in a few years, I did not renew a season ticket package. This is primarily because my paying occupation is sending me around the country more, and I wasn't sure if I'd be able to use all my tickets. But there's another reason why I didn't renew my season tickets: I felt that it wasn't something I had to do in order to attend games and support the team. See, there's a difference between season tickets and regular attendance. Right now, the only way expansion team supporters can do anything real to support their team is to buy season tickets. Quite simply, there are no games for them to attend and sing and chant and cheer. So with only one option to take, they're taking it. But I don't need season tickets to support the team, I can just walk up to the box office, usually day of game, and grab a decent ticket. RFK is cavernous, even with only the lower bowl available, and I'm not worried about getting a place in the stadium. And once I'm there, how does it matter how I got there? The supply of tickets is huge, and while our demand is strong, it doesn't really create a huge incentive for me to cough up the cash for a package. This might change in the utopian future of the Soccer Specific Stadium, but who knows? And given that United draws decent attendance even without the season ticket base of an expansion franchise, I think others may feel the same way. We know the tickets are going to be there whenever we want them.

Now, I do recognize that this approach may indirectly harm the team in terms of estimating cash flows. They can bank season ticket sales in advance in a way you can't with walk-up sales. And I do feel slightly guilty about this, but at the same time it's so much of a theoretical problem (I mean, they're still going to get my money, it's just going to affect their models) that it does not really change my position on the matter.

So that's why I think United's season ticket sales may seem to lag, and once the SSS is up, perhaps they will see an increase (in fact, almost certainly). Then demand suddenly is constrained by supply, providing a greater incentive to part with the cash in advance. And for expansion teams, their fans don't know how to judge demand with seating capacity, and are naturally excited about being able to support their team right now. Good for them.

Now, if United's attendance starts suffering, we may have to reconsider.

Debriefing for Match 13.A.01: At Harbour View F.C.

Harbour View F.C. 1 : 1 D.C. United

Six Word Novel Recap

The season's started. Tell the players.

Media, Traditional and Otherwise

The Washington Post, Steve Goff: "Devon McTavish scored for United just before halftime, but Lovell Palmer volleyed the equalizer past goalkeeper Zach Wells to leave the total-goals series even heading into the final leg Tuesday night at RFK Stadium."
MLSNet, Charles Boehm: "D.C. started out brightly, switching play from side to side and probing the Harbour View back line. But the MLS side was hit by two injury blows in quick succession starting in the 14th minute. First Moreno pulled up clutching his hamstring after chasing after a ball deep in the Harbour View penalty area, immediately signaling the bench for a substitution. Then goalkeeper Zach Wells took a boot to the head as he raced off his line and smothered a through ball at the feet of Richard Edwards, who seemed to leave his foot in a dangerous position as he moved past the prone netminder. After receiving treatment, the dazed Wells was able to continue, but Moreno gave way to another new South American, Argentinos Juniors loanee Franco Niell."
UnitedMania, Chris Webb: "Despite it being United's first match of the season, they had decent control of the flow of play throughout the first half only being halted by a series of rough tackles that resulted in yellow cards to two Harbour View players...The second half was pretty similar to the start of the game in that United was the better team for the first 20 minutes but then Harbour View started to pile on the pressure."
The Fullback Files: "United looked rough, but you pretty much could have predicted that with the crappy pitch on offer and the lack of match sharpness for United coming in. Regardless, I thought we'd show a little better than that."
BlackDogRed, BDR: "No broad generalizations on the fate of the season from a first disorganized 90 minutes of determined refusal to build through the middle, but if Soehn's great brainstorm with all his new talent is to play every ball over the top like some relegation threatened Wearside team, jeebus fuck, he could have done that with last year's talent. You spend the designated player spot on a ball-distributing ten and craft a strategy of running the offense over him?"
DCUMD, Shatz: "All in all, not an unfair result when you consider its our first competitive match with this team and they've been playing together for months. And we were missing our two emotional leaders."
Fighting Talker, Aaron Stollar: "What I didn’t like...No wide play. United left Emilio fairly isolated with a lack of decent crosses. Yes, the goal was a result (indrectly of a cross) but the two wingers Fred and McTavish needed to be more involved and they weren’t" [Note: Word. See below]
QuarterVolley, I-66: "Work in progress. That’s the way to describe this team right now. "
Six Yards North, QJA: "The most important thing I noticed was the slow pace to the game. It seems United is struggling to shake off its preseason mentality. Players were walking at every opportunity and there were far too many lackadaisical balls over the top."
Soccer Insider, Steve Goff: "The first two results were satisfactory for the visiting MLS sides, who will head home for the second legs of the Champions' Cup quarterfinals next week"

The Good

1. Frank O'Neal: Came into the game ahead of schedule, but I thought did very well. He seems to be two things: Fast and Small. And he was good, it was his hustle that brought us to the goal.
   
2. Clyde Simms: Thought he had a wonderful game at midfield, a disruptive force
   
3. Center Defense: Seemed decent for most of the game, giving up a goal on a set piece but I don't fault any of the new acquisitions for that. Stollar and I are in agreement that Burch and Namoff were most at fault.
   

The Bad

1. Ef the SC: Reading around the blogs, it seems to have been concluded that Lifton and Fullback posted the definitive critique of Fox Soccer Channel's myriad mispronunciations. I agree with everything they said, and urge you to read their litanies. In response, I propose to now pronounce Caligiuri as Caligula.
   
2. Tom Soehn and the Safety First Kids: Again, I don't think out tactics last night will be the same as our tactics the rest of the year, but last night was not particularly fun to watch. Long balls over the top is ugly football, but I understand the reason for it. More concerning for me was a lack of recognition that Harbour View's late game threat wasn't something that would solved by adding Dan as another holding midfielder. The direct move would have been to take off Fred or McTavish for a better defending wing player (Kirk? Tino if his defense really has improved?) And that's assuming you agree with the idea of just trying to hold the lead, which many of you do not (although here, I differ, feeling that the motivation is sound, it was just the execution that was suspect).
   
3. Marcello Gallardo: A marginal call here. It wasn't so much that he was bad, but that we seemed to be playing a system that reduced his role to Marco Etcheverry 2001 (let me hit a thirty yard pass and see if you can run it down.) I expect more. I expect our tactics to show us more. His first free kick was pretty nondescript. His second was quite nice. I am excited, but I don't think we really saw much last night.
   
4. Devon McTavish: Yes, he got the goal. And he did well after blocking a team mate's shot to get that goal. But for most of the night, he was invisible, even on defense, and that's simply not acceptable. Fred was compartively better, so Fred's off the hook on this one.
   
5. Emilio: If he's going to get the captain's armband, then even when teams are taking him out of the game he's got to assert himself.
   
6. Jaime Moreno: Not his fault that he pulled up lame, but not encouraging either.
   
7. Marc Burch: Got caught twice deep in our end with the ball, and that's simply not acceptable. I want to see a step forward in his game, and it wasn't there last night.
   

Man of the Match

N/A

Karma Bank

Not applicable, but it was I'd fine us 1 karma for a generally listless performance.

Final Thoughts

I do enjoy writing these again. I really do. And while I'm disappointed, I'm not furious. As I wrote last night, I can't imagine this is how we'll play the entire year. I have to believe we made a tactical decision last night to play as we did, and that the second leg at RFK will see an entirely different type of game.

Like Stollar, I am concerned about the lack of wing play. I hinted at this last night, but even when we had control at the top of the box, it seemed too often the through balls on the flank were going to Namoff. I love Namoff, but I'd prefer to see crosses or penetration in that area from Fred or Kirk or someone whose job is to get forward. Gallardo played the ball long decently, but I did not see a recognition that our lack of width was an issue last year, or that we've taken any tactical steps to address it.

So... neither bad nor good but thinking makes it so. Preseason form was in evidence, but we can not use that as an excuse. If we allow ourselves to think that way, we are only creating excuses for a loss, and not a reason for a win. I want a win.